Oscar Predictions: Argo Triumphant

The Oscars are tomorrow night and I'm very excited. This is the first time in years I've seen all nine of the nominated Best Pictures (thanks to Amazon Prime for Beasts of the Southern Wild), all but one of the acting nominees (sorry, Naomi Watts), four of the five feature documentaries (thanks Netflix), all of the animated and live-action shorts. So here are my predictions and I hope to clean up at a friends' Oscar party.

Picture: Argo

I still don't get why this well-made, but conventional thriller is the expected winner. Is it the backlash against the Affleck snub? Is Lincoln too talky? Probably a combination. This is an action-oriented, feel-good picture that gets your heart racing. It certainly did mine in the closing sequence which departed from the truth significantly, I hear. I understand the disguised diplomats just sailed through the airport in Iran without a hitch, but that would have made for a boring ending.

Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

There has been some movement among Oscar pundits that Emmanuelle Riva might be a surprise winner if Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence split the vote, but Lawrence will probably edge it out since she gets to cry and is American. Chastain had only that one tear at the end.

BAFTA Noms Honor Affleck, Snub Spielberg

John Goodman, Alan Arkin, and Ben Affleck in Argo

It's the day before the Oscar nominations and we have the final major nominations before the big announcement: the BAFTAs which are the British equivalent of the Oscars, and the Directors Guild nominations. The major surprises were the BAFTAs including Ben Affleck as both best actor and director for Argo and snubbing Spielberg, though Lincoln got the most nominations from the Brits. Affleck's best actor nod is his only one for performing while he's received directing nominations from the Globes, Critics Choice and DGA.

The BAFTA also include a separate category for Best British Film but since I'm not including foreign films in the other tallying, I won't tally that here. It sounds sort of like a consolation prize, like the Critics Choice Awards including Best Comedy Film and Best Action Film. Les Miz is nominated for both Best FIlm and Best British Film. The other nominees are Anna Karenina (the only major award recognition for the Tom Stoppard adaptation of Tolstoy), The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Seven Psychopaths, and Skyfall. In addition to BAFTAs and DGAs, we've added the Online FIlm Critics Society winners.

Picture: Argo (AFI, bafta; cc, gg, OFCS, pga, SD)
Amour (LAFCA, NSFC)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (AFI, cc, is, pga)
Bernie (is)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (gg)
The Dark Knight Rises (AFI)
Django Unchained (AFI, cc, gg, pga)
Keep the Lights On (is)
Les Miserables (AFI, bafta, cc, gg, pga)
Life of Pi (AFI, bafta, cc, gg, LV, pga)
Lincoln (AFI, bafta, cc, DFW, gg, pga)
The Master (cc, SF)
Moonrise Kingdom (AFI, cc, gg, is, pga)
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg)
Silver Linings Playbook (AFI, cc, DET, gg, is, pga)
Skyfall (pga)
Zero Dark Thirty (AFI, bafta, Bos, CHI, cc, DC, gg, NBR, NYFCC, NYO, pga) 

Oscar Nominee Predictions

I decided not to wait until the BAFTA nominations come up to make my Oscar predictions. That would only leave me one day. We did get the DGA nominations and they were pretty much as expected--Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg, the only surprise was the inclusion of Tom Hooper for Les Miz instead of David Russell for SIlver Linings Playbook. I think the Oscar nominators will give him a Screenplay nod. We'll include the DGA in tomorrow's awards wrap up with the BAFTAs.

So here are my predix

Picture: 
Argo 
Amour 
Django Unchained 
Les Miserables 
Life of Pi 
Lincoln 
The Master 
Moonrise Kingdom 
Silver Linings Playbook 
Zero Dark Thirty 
I think there will be the maximum of ten nominees this year since there are so many pictures with strong support. Argo, Les Miz, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings and Zero are definites. There might be a nod to megabox office pix like The Dark Knight or Skyfall or maybe even The Hobbit. I hope they'll include indie fave Moonrise Kingdom and foreign weepie Amour. The final race is between Zero and Lincoln, both political pix. Critics darling Zero may be a problem for Hollywood since it seems to endorse torture and is under investigation. So Lincoln could sneak in as Best Pic and they'd give Bigelow best director as a consolation prize. 

'Lincoln' Leads Broadcast Film Critics Noms

Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

Critics' movie awards continue to announce their winners and nominees and Lincoln finally trumped Zero Dark Thirty, taking the most nominations, a record 13 from the Broadcast Film Critics Association including Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Actress and Director. This group is composed of scribes who air their views on TV, radio or the web. A few years ago they graduated from merely announcing their winners like the New York Film Critics and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association to rolling out announcements for nominations and then presenting the awards in a TV ceremony and calling the event the Critics Choice Awards. The show has been on VH-1 and this year it will go from basic cable to broadcast network on the CW with a ceremony telecast on Jan. 10, the day the Oscar nominations are announced.

Perhaps in an attempt to out Golden-Globe the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Broadcast Critics have added even more categories than the GG, presenting award for Best Comedy and Action Picture and Actor and Actress in those respective genres. In addition, you can be nominated in those categories and also be in the running in the general film fields. Thus Judi Dench is nominated three times, for Supporting Actress and Best Actress in an Action Picture for her M in Skyfall and as part of the Best Ensemble for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Likewise, Bradley Cooper is nominated for Best Actor and Best Actor in a Comedy for Silver Linings Playbook. Even I'm not obsessive enough to list all those nominations in my compilation of the all the film awards so far (See below) Also I will skip the Detroit Film Critics nominations (maybe when the announce their winners, I'll include them.)

Picture: Argo (cc)
Amour (LAFCA)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (cc)
Django Unchained (cc)
Les Miserables (cc)
Life of Pi (cc)
Lincoln (cc)
The Master (cc)
Moonrise Kingdom (cc)
Silver Linings Playbook (cc)
Zero Dark Thirty (Bos, cc, NBR, NYFCC, NYO) 

Actor: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, NBR)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (Bos, cc, NYFCC, NYO)
John Hawkes, The Sessions (cc)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (cc)
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (cc, LAFCA)
Denzel Washington, Flight (cc)

Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (cc, NBR)
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (cc)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, LAFCA-tie)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (Bos, cc, LAFCA-tie, NYO)
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (cc)
Naomi Watts, The Impossible (cc)
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (NYFCC)

Supp. Actor: Alan Arkin, Argo (cc)
Javier Bardem, Skyfall (cc)
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook (cc)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (NBR)
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFCA)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (cc)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (cc, NYO)
Matthew Maconaughey, Bernie and Magic Mike (cc, NYFCC)
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Bos)

Supp. Actress: Amy Adams, The Master (cc, LAFCA)
Judi Dench, Skyfall (cc)
Ann Dowd, Compliance (cc, NBR)
Sally Field, Lincoln (Bos, cc, NYFCC)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (cc, NY)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions (cc)

Director: Ben Affleck, Argo (cc)
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA)
Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (Bos, cc, NBR, NYFCC)
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables (cc)
Ang Lee, Life of Pi (cc)
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (cc)
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (cc)

Bos=Boston Society of Film Critics; cc=Critics Choice Award nomination; LAFCA=Los Angeles Film Critics Assoc.; NBR=National Board of Review; NYFCC=New York Film Critics Circle; NYO=New York Film Critics Online

Boston and NYC Online Crix Continue with 'Zero' Crowning

This is getting monotonous. No sooner do I find out the LA crix have broken the trend and awarded Amour, a film I've never heard of, Best Pic, instead of Zero Dark Thirty, but on the very same day, the Boston Society of Film Critics and the New York Film Critics Online give their top prize to Zero. The damned thing hasn't even opened yet and already it's the top contender for the Oscar. (I also keep writing the title as Zero Thirty Dark or Zero Thirty Down.) I'm glad Ezra Miller who played the gay high school senior so movingly in The Perks of Being a Wallflower was recognized by the Beantown scribes in their supporting actor voting.

Here's where we are with all the awards so far: SAG, Critics Circle, and Golden Globe noms will be out this week. Daniel Day-Lewis is in the lead so far for best actor for Lincoln with the most wins. Emmanuelle Riva is the unexpected winningest lead actress with three triumphs. This foreign star's chances of getting an Oscar nod are iffy since so many Hollywood names are vying for the nom. The supporting actor category is the most diverse with each group picking a different winner.


Picture: Amour (LAFCA); Zero Dark Thirty (Bos, NBR, NYFCC, NYO) 
Actor: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (NBR); Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (Bos, NYFCC, NYO); Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (LAFCA)
Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (NBR); Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (LAFCA-tie); Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (Bos, LAFCA-tie, NYO); Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (NYFCC)
Supp. Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (NBR); Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFCA); Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (NYO); Matthew Maconaughey, Bernie and Magic Mike (NYFCC); Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Bos)
Supp. Actress: Amy Adams, The Master (LAFCA); Ann Dowd, Compliance (NBR); Sally Field, Lincoln (Bos, NYFCC); Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (NY)
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA); Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (Bos, NBR, NYFCC)

Bos=Boston Society of Film Critics; LAFCA=Los Angeles Film Critics Assoc.; NBR=National Board of Review; NYFCC=New York Film Critics Circle; NYO=New York Film Critics Online

News Bits: 'Zero' Wins at NYFCC; Redgrave and Jones to Star in 'Much Ado'; Tyson in 'Bountiful'

Zero Thirty Down won Best Picture and Best Director from the New York Film Critics Circle which cast their votes today. Several GoldDerby prognosticators accurately predicted that outcome, but were wrong in their forecast of Zero's Jessica Chastain taking Best Actress. The winner was Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea. Lincoln won for Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actress (Sally Field), and Screenplay (Tony Kushner). Nobody expected Matthew Maconaughey to take Supporting Actor honors for the male-stripper film Magic Mike and Bernie, the dark comedy starring Jack Black and Shirley MacLaine which came and went so quickly earlier this year. (Critics group often include multiple films for individual recipients if they are released in the same year.) Zero and Lincoln are definite frontrunners for Oscar and Golden Globe consideration and it will be interesting to see how the explosive action picture fares against the talky history film. But then Les Miz might trump them both.

Vanessa Redgrave and James Earl Jones in Driving Miss Daisy
Credit: Annabel Clark

Vanessa Redgrave (75) and James Earl Jones (81) will be playing Beatrice and Benedick in a production of Much Ado About Nothing for the Old Vic Theatre Company in London, next season (Sept.19-Nov. 16, 2013). Sounds like absolutely fascinating casting and if anyone call pull off playing Shakespeare's witty lovers at their shall we say mature ages, these two certainly can. I saw them playing opposite each other in Driving Miss Daisy on Broadway last year and the connection was electric.

Cicely Tyson will mark her return to Broadway after a 30-year absence in a revival of Horton Foote's The Trip to Bountiful which opens at the Sondheim Theatre on April 23 for a limited run (previews begin March 31). Michael Wilson who staged Foote's mammoth three-part The Orphan's Home Cycle at the Signature Theatre Company directs  Geraldine Page won and Oscar and Lois Smith won a Drama Desk Award for their portrayals of the lead character, Carrie Watts, who leaves her Houston home to revisit the gulf town of her youth. Lillian Gish originated the role in 1953 when it was a TV play and then brought to the Broadway stage version the same year. In those days, original, serious, studio-shot dramas were a staple on the airwaves and they were often translated to Broadway and the movies (Marty, Twelve Angry Men, The Days of Wine and Roses are just a few examples.) In today's vast universe of TV channels, not one rebroadcasts these great works or commissions new plays for the small screen.

'Zero Dark Thirty' Over 'Lincoln' for NY Film Crix?

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
Credit: Columbia Pictures

Gold Derby forecasters predict Zero Dark Thirty, director Kathryn Bigelow's thriller about the hunt for Osama Bin Laden, will win Best Picture in today's voting for the New York Film Critics Circle Award. As the first film major film award of the season, that could be a coup for the film which doesn't even open until Dec. 19. Will the explosion-filled feature beat out my top choice Lincoln when the Golden Globes and Oscars are handed out and can Bigelow repeat her Hurt Locker success? The Gold Derby crew also favors Jessica Chastain to take Best Actress for Zero. Chastain is only in contention for one film this year. This will be a switch from last year when she was in six films and won numerous awards (incl. from the Gotham crix) in the supporting category for multiple pix including The Help, Tree of Life, and Take Shelter. Chastain is currently starring on Broadway in The Heiress and has received mixed notices for her Main Stem debut. Here's mine on ArtsinNY.com (just scroll down).

Speaking of Broadway, the first holiday closing of the season has been announced. Chaplin will end its run at the Barrymore Theatre on Jan. 6, 2013 after 24 previews and 136 regular performances. Click on the ArtsinNY link for my review which is further down the page. Can Scandalous be far behind?

NY Stage Actors in Lincoln

It was wonderful to see Lincoln last night at the Union Square multiplex, not only because it was a great film and will probably win a bunch of Oscars, but also because I have read so many Lincoln books over the past few years. It felt like I knew the people and the era intimately, as if I were living then, or at least had a feel for what it may have been like to live in Washington as everyone's world was turned upside down and inside out by the Civil War. Rather than attempt to encompass all of Lincoln's life or even his time in the White House (as Gore Vidal did in his novel and the TV mini-series), screenwriter Tony Kushner and director Steven Spielberg zero in on a few weeks in 1865 as Lincoln pushes the Amendment to end slavery through the House of Representatives.

My only problem was the occasional "weight-of-history" scenes which felt too much like they were imposed on the action. One example is the scene between Lincoln and Mrs. Keckley (Gloria Reuben), Mary's dressmaker and companion. "What do you see as the future of your people," Lincoln asks her. I doubt if such a conversation ever took place and it seems like a writer's invention to scream at us "Important things are happening here, you people of 2012!"

I predict it will win Best Picture and Spielberg will get his second Best Director Oscar. Kushner will probably get an Adapted Screenplay award, a making him one of the few authors to win a Pulitzer, Tony, and Oscar (I think Alfred Uhry is the only other one). Daniel Day Lewis is a lock for Best Actor and Tommy Lee Jones and Sally Field are strong contenders for supporting Oscars. Hal Holbrook had a very nice couple of scenes as power broker Preston Blair.

Another bonus for me was the strong presence of the NY theater community in the cast. There were many actors in supporting role whom I've seen and reviewed in numerous Broadway and Off-Broadway productions. I had just seen one actor (Byron Jennings) in The 27th Man at the Public just a few days earlier and another (David Strathairn) I had seen in The Heiress the previous week. Many of my favorite stage actors had prominent and featured roles incl. Elizabeth Marvel, Bill Camp, S. Epatha Merkersen, Michael Stuhlbarg, Stephen Spinella, Julie White, Dakin Matthew, Coleman Domingo, Jared Harris, Adam Driver, Boris McGiver, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Christopher Evan Welch (who was just in The Master also).

There were problems with the experience. The Union Square has those rocking chairs which lean back. The person behind me must have had extremely long legs because he kept kicking the back of my chair. It wasn't a constant barrage of violent assaults, but it was just often enough to be annoying. I did turn around once to stare at him and that worked for a while, but there were a few slight taps afterwards. My senses were bombarded from the opposite direction as well. In the row in front of me and few seats to my right, a woman was looking at her I phone, checking her Facebook status, for long intervals during the film.The light from her phone was very distracting. There were numerous admonition to turn off cell phones and not to text during the film. I think she must have thought "As long as I'm not talking or texting during the movie, I'm not bothering anyone." I really should have said something, but I didn't want to cause a scene. But it still bothers me. I mean, didn't this woman know she would be seeing a long, serious film with few battle scenes?  If you're so bored by history that you just have to look at your Iphone pictures, why even go to the movie? Next time I will gently say, "Please turn off your phone, the light and your FaceBook updates are taking me out of the 19th century, you moron."    
            
To continue with the Lincoln saturation, I have ordered used DVDs of two TV mini-series on our 16th president: Carl Sandburg's Lincoln starring Hal Holbrook and Sada Thompson from 1974 and Gore Vidal's Lincoln with Sam Waterston and Mary Tyler Moore from 1988. I've already seen Raymond Massey in Abe Lincoln in Illinois and Henry Fonda in Young Abe Lincoln. I will blog about the differences.