Oscar Predictions: Argo Triumphant

The Oscars are tomorrow night and I'm very excited. This is the first time in years I've seen all nine of the nominated Best Pictures (thanks to Amazon Prime for Beasts of the Southern Wild), all but one of the acting nominees (sorry, Naomi Watts), four of the five feature documentaries (thanks Netflix), all of the animated and live-action shorts. So here are my predictions and I hope to clean up at a friends' Oscar party.

Picture: Argo

I still don't get why this well-made, but conventional thriller is the expected winner. Is it the backlash against the Affleck snub? Is Lincoln too talky? Probably a combination. This is an action-oriented, feel-good picture that gets your heart racing. It certainly did mine in the closing sequence which departed from the truth significantly, I hear. I understand the disguised diplomats just sailed through the airport in Iran without a hitch, but that would have made for a boring ending.

Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

There has been some movement among Oscar pundits that Emmanuelle Riva might be a surprise winner if Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence split the vote, but Lawrence will probably edge it out since she gets to cry and is American. Chastain had only that one tear at the end.

Catching Up with Oscar Best Pic Nominees

Quvenzhane Wallis and Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild

For the first time in years I have a noble goal in sight: catching all of the nominees for Best Picture before the Oscar telecast. When there were only five candidates, it wasn't much of a problem. But then they went and stretched it to ten and I fell hopelessly behind--Did I really need to see The Blind Side? This year, there are nine--they changed the rules again last year so that the number can vary from five to ten for some weird statistical reason--and I have caught eight of them.