For the past few years, I've combined my predictions for the Tonys with the Drama Desks because the two theater-award ceremonies were so close together. But this year, the DDs were held much earlier than the Tonys. So here are my predix for the upcoming Broadway-only Tonys. This has been an odd season with only 34 Broadway productions (if you count return engagements
Mamma Mia and
Beetlejuice) as opposed to 43 the previous season and 39 the season before that. There are only six new musicals, two of which have already closed (
Queen of Versailles and
Beaches). Some attribute this to the high volume of shows held-over from previous seasons including
The Outlaws, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club, and
Maybe Happy Ending. Fewer theaters were available for new shows.
Best Play
Prediction: The Balusters
Preference: Liberation
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Will The Balusters triumph over Liberation? Credit: Jeremy Daniel |
The Balusters is still running and won the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards.
Liberation (my choice) did take the Pulitzer Prize but closed as did NY Drama Critics Circle winner
Little Bear Ridge Road.
Liberation was not eligible for the DD or the OCC since it was nominated last season during its Off-Broadway run.
Giant is seen more as a vehicle for John Lithgow than a play that could stand on it own.
Best Musical
Prediction and Preference: Schmigadoon
The Lost Boys could sneak in, but there is much affection for Schmigadoon, the parody tribute to the Golden Age of Musicals even though most of it was already seen on the Apple TV+ series.
Best Musical Revival
Prediction: Ragtime
Preference: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
I voted for Cats: The Jellicle Ball because it was such a radical rethinking of the original, recasting Andrew Lloyd Webber's cosy musicalization of TS Eliot's poems as a drag ball celebrating outsider queer culture. Ragtime is magnificent, but this Lincoln Center revival is essentially the same show as the first production. As with Liberation, Cats was considered last season by the DD and the OCC for its Off-Bway run. It's very close and could go either way, but I have a feeling the Tony voters will lean towards the traditional with Ragtime.
Best Play Revival:
Prediction and Preference: Death of a Salesman
Despite multiple revivals of Arthur Miller's classic, director Joe Mantello found new insights.
Best Actor in a Play
Prediction and Preference: John Lithgow, Giant
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Is John Lithgow on the way to his third Tony? Credit: Joan Marcus |
John Lithgow has two Tonys, Nathan Lane has three. Not that it matters. It's between these two past Tony champs. Lithgow has the edge because his role requires more shifting emotions from rage to deceptively ingratiating wit as the anti-Semitic author Roald Dahl. Lane is brilliant but his Willy doesn't go through as many changes.
Best Actress in a Play:
Prediction and Preference: Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Best Actor in a Musical:
Prediction and Preference: Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Best Actress in a Musical:
Prediction: Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Preference: Sara Chase, Schmigadoon
I preferred Sara Chase in Schmigadoon who was funny and touching as the musical-loving doctor trapped in the titular fantasy town but Drama Desk winner Caissie Levy will probably be part of a Ragtime sweep.