Monday, January 14, 2013

'Lincoln' Oscar Sweep; 'Zero' Sum Game

Lincoln swept the Oscar nomination on Thurs. and I did pretty well on my predictions. Best Picture=8 out of 9 right (I did say there would be ten nominees, so I had an edge); Actor=4 out of 5 (Hugh Jackman took John Hawkes place, paralyzed usually beats musical); Actress=3 out 5; Supporting Actor=5 out of 5; Supporting Actress=4 out of 5; Director=2 out of 5. 

The biggest surprises were the snubs of Ben Affleck (who won big for Argo at the Golden Globes last night) and Katheryn Bigelow in the Best Director category. I think guarantees a win for Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. It may be that the Oscar directing voters wanted to shy away from politics, rejecting both directors who helmed CIA-themed pictures.

I was also surprised that Beasts of the Southern Wild did so well picking up nominations for Best Picture, Actress (nine-year-old Quvenzhane Wallis) and director. I thought if they were going to reward a little indie film, they'd go with Moonrise Kingdom which got a screenplay nod. Executives must be pulling their hair out saying "We go them to go to ten nominees for Best Pictures so blockbusters like Dark Knight Rising and Skyfall get included. Instead they give it to a French downer about old people and a weird jagged thing about a little girl in a swamp?" Sat. I saw both Les Miz and Beasts and will do a separate blog on that.

Here is where we stand 

PictureAmour (LAFCA, NSFC, oscar)
 Argo (AFI, bafta; cc, gg, OFCS, oscar, pga, SD)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (AFI, cc, is, oscar, pga)
Bernie (is)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (gg)
The Dark Knight Rises (AFI)
Django Unchained (AFI, cc, gg, oscar, pga)
Keep the Lights On (is)
Les Miserables (AFI, bafta, cc, gg, oscar, pga)
Life of Pi (AFI, bafta, cc, gg, LV, oscar, pga)
Lincoln (AFI, bafta, cc, DFW, gg, oscar, pga)
The Master (cc, SF)
Moonrise Kingdom (AFI, cc, gg, is, pga)
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg)
Silver Linings Playbook (AFI, cc, DET, gg, is, oscar, pga)
Skyfall (pga)
Zero Dark Thirty (AFI, bafta, Bos, CHI, cc, DC, gg, NBR, NYFCC, NYO, oscar, pga) 

Actor: Ben Affleck, Argo (bafta)
Jack Black, Bernie (gg, is)
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (bafta, cc, gg, is, NBR, oscar, sag)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (bafta, Bos, cc, CHI, DC, DET, DFW, gg, LV, NSFC, NYFCC, NYO, OFCS, oscar, sag, SD)
Richard Gere, Arbitrage (gg)
John Hawkes, The Sessions (cc, gg, is, sag)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (bafta, cc, gg, oscar, sag)
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On (is)
Matthew MacConaughey, Killer Joe (is)
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg)
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson (gg)
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (bafta, cc, gg, LAFCA, oscar, SF)
Wendell Pierce, Four (is)
Denzel Washington, Flight (cc, gg, oscar, sag)

Actress: Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg) 
Linda Cartellini, Return (is)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (bafta, cc, CHI, DC, DFW, gg, NBR, OFCS, oscar, sag)
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere (is)
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (bafta, cc, gg, sag)
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (gg)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (bafta, cc, DET, gg, is, LAFCA-tie, LV, oscar, sag)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (bafta, Bos, cc, LAFCA-tie, NSFC, NYO, oscar, SF)
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (bafta, gg, sag)
Maggie Smith, Quartet (gg)
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs (gg)
Quvenzhan√© Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (cc, is, oscar)
Naomi Watts, The Impossible (cc, gg, oscar, sag)
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (gg, NYFCC)
Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz (SD)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed (is)

Supp. Actor: Alan Arkin, Argo (bafta, cc, gg, oscar, sag)
Javier Bardem, Skyfall (bafta, cc, sag)
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, DET, oscar, sag)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (gg, NBR)
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFCA)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (bafta, cc, CHI, DC, gg, OFCS, oscar, sag)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (bafta, cc, DFW, gg, LV, NYO, oscar, sag, SF)
Matthew MaconaugheyBernie and Magic Mike (cc, is, NSFC, NYFCC)
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Bos)
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere (is)
Michael Pena, End of Watch (is)
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths (is)
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (bafta, gg, oscar, SD)
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom (is)

Supp. Actress: Amy Adams, The Master (bafta, cc, CHI, gg, LAFCA, NSFC, oscar)
Judi Dench, Skyfall (bafta, cc)
Rosemarie DeWItt, Your Sister's Sister (is)
Ann Dowd, Compliance (cc, is, NBR)
Sally Field, Lincoln (bafta, Bos, cc, DFW, gg, NYFCC, oscar, sag)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (bafta, cc, DC, DET, gg, LV, NY, OFCS, oscar, sag)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions (bafta, cc, gg, is, oscar, sag, SF)
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy (gg, sag)
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice (is)
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (sag)
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere (is)
Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (SD)
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook (oscar)

Director: Ben Affleck, Argo (bafta, cc, dga, gg, SD)
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA, OFCS)
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom (is)
Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (bafta, Bos, cc, CHI, DC, DFW, dga, gg, LV, NBR, NYFCC, SF)
Michael Haneke. Amour (bafta, NSFC, oscar)
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables (cc, dga)
Ang Lee, Life of Pi (bafta, cc, dga, gg, oscar)
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet (is)
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, DET, is, oscar)
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On (is)
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (cc, dga, gg, oscar)
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (bafta, gg)
Bein Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (is, oscar)

AFI=American Film Institute; bafta=BAFTA nomination; Bos=Boston Society of Film Critics; cc=Critics Choice Award nomination; CHI=Chicago FIlm Critics Association; DFW=Dallas Fort Worth Film Critics; DC=Washington DC Film Critics Association; DET=Detroit Film Critics; dga=Directors Guild nomination; gg=Golden Globe nomination; is=Independent Spirit Awards nomination; LAFCA=Los Angeles Film Critics Assoc.; LV=Las Vegas Film Critics Society; NBR=National Board of Review; NSFC=National Society of Film Critics; NYFCC=New York Film Critics Circle; NYO=New York Film Critics Online; OFCS=Online Film Critics Society; oscar=Oscar nomination; pga=Producers Guild Award nomination; sag=SAG Award nomination; SD=San Diego Film Critics Society; SF=San Francisco Film Critics Circle

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