Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Oscar Nominee Predictions
I decided not to wait until the BAFTA nominations come up to make my Oscar predictions. That would only leave me one day. We did get the DGA nominations and they were pretty much as expected--Affleck, Bigelow, Lee, Spielberg, the only surprise was the inclusion of Tom Hooper for Les Miz instead of David Russell for SIlver Linings Playbook. I think the Oscar nominators will give him a Screenplay nod. We'll include the DGA in tomorrow's awards wrap up with the BAFTAs.
So here are my predix
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
I think there will be the maximum of ten nominees this year since there are so many pictures with strong support. Argo, Les Miz, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings and Zero are definites. There might be a nod to megabox office pix like The Dark Knight or Skyfall or maybe even The Hobbit. I hope they'll include indie fave Moonrise Kingdom and foreign weepie Amour. The final race is between Zero and Lincoln, both political pix. Critics darling Zero may be a problem for Hollywood since it seems to endorse torture and is under investigation. So Lincoln could sneak in as Best Pic and they'd give Bigelow best director as a consolation prize.
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
The only possible spoiler is Phoenix whose anti-Oscar rants jeopardize his chances. If he's snubbed, his slot could go to Hugh Jackman or maybe even Bill Murray.Day-Lewis will take home his third prize.
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Riva should be the winner, but she might not even get a nom since she's in a foreign film. But this is a weak year for leading ladies with only Chastain and Lawrence as shoe-ins.Chastain is the favorite ("You don't know Pakistan!")
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
These five are pretty set, but the winner is either Hoffman or Jones. Both are previous winners, so it's hard to say.
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Smith is a maybe, but the only other possibility is Ann Dowd in tiny indie Compliance. The Oscar voters really, really like Sally Field, but she has two already and they may want to give something to Anne Hathaway for starving herself.
Ben Affleck, Argo
Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Hooper may drop out for Russell or Tarantino, Bigelow is probably the winner because of all those helicopters.