Post-Slap Oscar Thoughts, Final Nominees List

Insert obligatory Chris Rock/Will Smith 
photo caption here

Okay, here is the obligatory post-Oscar rant. Only this year's is a bit different. I was all set to celebrate my getting 21 out of 23 categories right in my predictions and to complain about eight technical and design awards being presented before the show started, but then Will Smith had to go and slap Chris Rock and ruin it for me. The show had been pretty routine up to that point and I was complaining on Twitter about all the commercials (there seemed to be more than usual). Then Chris Rock did his lame joke about Jada Pinkett Smith's lack of hair and Smith went off after an eye-roll from the wife. All kinds of horrible triggers here. Toxic masculinity. Over protective patriarchy. Trumpist violence becoming acceptable. Racist stereotypes of black men being unable to control their emotions reinforced. Idols like Bill Cosby, OJ Simpson and now Will Smith falling. Comedians being in danger for doing their job. 

2022 Oscar Predictions: Will CODA Tame Dog?

This year's Oscar race has been a fun one for me. Thanks to streaming services, I have been able to see most of the nominees in the major categories. The field is a broad and fascinating one, ranging from the satire of Don't Look Up to science-fiction outer worldliness of Dune. In previous blogs, I noted my journey of viewing as many nominated films as possible. Here are my predictions for the big night. The big battle for the top prize is between CODA and Power of the Dog while Dune will dominate the technical and design categories.

Best Picture
Prediction: CODA
Preference: The Power of the Dog or West Side Story

Jane Campion's psychological Western The Power of the Dog was the front-runner for the top Oscar for much of the pre-awards season, but with wins at the SAGs and PGAs (Producers Guild), CODA, a feel-good weepy about the hearing daughter of deaf parents and her triumph over adversity and unfair fishing laws, looks to be the likely winner. Dog is a much more challenging, disturbing film with its subtle exposure of toxic masculinity and repressed gayness. If the cozy CODA triumphs, it will follow an Oscar pattern of choosing the easy, conventional film over more challenging work without happy endings. Previous examples include Green Book over Black Klansman, Crash over Brokeback Mountain, Ordinary People over Raging Bull, Rocky over All the President's Men and, of course, How Green Was My Valley over Citizen Kane. However, in recent years, Oscar has occasionally chosen the more unique candidate such as Nomadland, Parasite and 12 Years a Slave. I am also rooting for West Side Story, Steven Spielberg's brilliant remake of the 1961 Oscar winner which was dealt a deadly blow at the box office because people under 50 don't seem to care about movie musicals.