2025 Tony Predictions

The Tony Awards are this Sunday, June 8 on CBS with a pre-show on Pluto. I have cast my Tony ballot and made my predictions. Maybe Happy Ending will probably be the big winner as the robot romance musical has dominating the Drama Desks, Outer Critics and New York Drama Critics Circle Awards. Here are my predictions and preferences:

Best Musical:
Prediction: Maybe Happy Ending
Preference: Operation Mincemeat

I preferred the British satiric take on a WWII secret operation to the sentimental South Korean-set robt romance, but Happy Ending has dominated awards season and Tony voters will go along.

Best Play:

Prediction and Preference: Purpose by Branden Jacobs-Jenkins

I'm going out on a bit of a limb here, but I think Purpose will defeat the nearest competitor Oh, Mary! which is a riot, but Best Play seldom goes to an out-and-out satiric comedy.

Best Musical Revival:

Prediction and Preference: Gypsy

The avant-garde Sunset Blvd. has divided audiences and critics, but all have agreed on this new, fresh take on Gypsy after countless retreads of Jerome Robbin's original staging and choreography.

Best Play Revival:

Predictions and Preference: Yellow Face

It's a toss-up between Eureka Day and Yellow Face. Both shows send political anti-Trump messages, but Yellow Face's recent broadcast on PBS may push it to the top of voters' minds and over the top.

Actor (Play):

Prediction: Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!

Preference: Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

Escola is brilliantly funny as an alcoholic, narcissistic, nightmare version of Mary Todd Lincoln but I was stunned by McCartney's visceral, intense performance as Henry Creel, battling with demons from the Upside Down. (BTW, I went back a second time to Stranger Things and they added a preview of Season 5 of the TV series after the curtain call which drove the audience wild.)

Actress (Play):

Prediction and Preference: Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Give an actress a solo show and she wins a Tony. Previous solo winners include Jodie Comer, Julie Harris, Lily Tomlin, Deirdre O'Connell. (Another BTW, I STILL don't understand why Snook was placed in the Leading Performance category by the Drama Desks instead of their Solo Performance slot, which the Outer Critics did. The Tonys have no Solo performance category.)

Actor (Musical):

Prediction: Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending

Preference: Jonathan Groff, Just in Time

Criss will probably win as part of the Happy Ending tidal wave. But Groff really worked his ass off as Bobby Darren in Just in Time--singing, dancing, acting almost constantly onstage throughout the show.

Actress (Musical):

Prediction: Audra McDonald, Gypsy

Preference: Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.

I have to admit, McDonald does deserve a seventh Tony for his ferocious Mama Rose, but I voted for Scherzinger's equally tiger-like Norma Desmond.

Maybe Happy Ending for Drama Desks

Titus Burgess and Debra Messing
hosted the Drama Desk Awards.

Maybe Happy Ending, the robot romance musical, was the big winner at the 69th annual Drama Desk Awards, winning six prizes including Outstanding Musical, Book, Lyrics, Score, Director and Set Design for a Musical. Branden Jacobs-Jenkins' Purpose won for Outstanding Play. The awards which include on, Off, and Off-Off-Broadway in each of its multiple categories were hosted by Debra Messing and Titus Burgess at NYU Skirball on June 1.  Stranger Things: The First Shadow and The Picture of Dorian Gray tied for most DDs for a play with three each. None of the Stranger Things designers were present to collect their awards (probably because they are based in London and would not be traveling to NY until the Tonys next week.)

Presenters included Lily Rabe, Jeremy Jordan, Jonathan Groff, Gracie Lawrence, Jennifer Simard, Jinx Monsoon, Michael Urie, Ryan Spahn, Tom Francis, Sarah Hyland, Julia Knitel, Jeb Brown, Andrew Durand, Adam Pascal, Will Swenson, Nicole Scherzinger, Alex Newell, Darren Criss, Branden Victor Dixon, Victoria Clark, and Bebe Neuwirth. Nominee Lesli Margherita of Gypsy opened the show with a parody of "Sit Down You're Rockin' the Boat" from Guys and Dolls with four chorus boys called "Sit Down We're Startin' the Show." Steve Rosen and David Rossmer wrote the show and Lorin Latarro directed. Additional entertainment was provided by musical numbers from Joshua Henry, Norm Lewis, and Thom Sesna of Dead Outlaw, last year's winner for Outstanding Musical. A satiric video mocked immersive theater with humorous images such as a performance of Damn Yankees during a baseball game and Hadestown in the rest room at Ellen's Stralight Diner.  

Celia Keenan-Bolger delivered a touching speech when accepting the Harold Prince Award for the late Gavin Creel. She related how she and Creel attended a party at Prince's apartment when they were roommates just starting out. By the end of the soiree, Creel had introduced Keenan-Bolger to everyone and his infectious spirit captivated the room full of their theater idols. She said the awards ceremony was like a party Gavin was giving where everyone in the theater community was supporting and celebrating each other.

The ceremony ran a little over three hours and was followed by a reception on Skirball's tenth floor. (Repeating a gag from last year, the hosts threw Halloween candy to the audience half-way through the show to keep their energy up.) While riding up in the elevator, Norm Lewis serenaded us with "I've Got Rhythm." I chatted with winner Gerard Alessandrini who recalled winning his first Drama Desk Award for the first Forbidden Broadway revue (A special award.) Chita Rivera hosted at Rainbow and Stars. He was sitting at a table with Charles Ludlum and Rex Harrison and Claudette Colbert, then co-starring in Aren't We All were sitting at the next table.  

A complete list of DD winners follows:

NYDCC Awards Purpose, Maybe Happy Ending, Scott, Liberation Cast

Helen J. Shen and Darren Criss in
Maybe Happy Ending,
Best Musical winner from the NYDCC.
Credit: Matthew Murphy and 
Evan Zimmerman

Branden Jacobs-Jenkins' Purpose and Will Aronson and Hue Park's Maybe Happy Ending were voted Best Play and Best Musical of the 2024-25 season by The New York Drama Critics Circle on May 5. Purpose had won the Pulitzer Prize and the American Theater Critics Association's Steinberg Award earlier the same day. The 89th meeting of the Circle took place at the offices of Time Out New York and lasted three and a half hours. The group introduced two new categories this year with Best Individual Performance going to Andrew Scott for Vanya and Best Ensemble to the cast of Liberation. Special citations were awarded to Cole Escola, performer and playwright for Oh, Mary!, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and to David Greenspan for Lifetime Achievement. (There are rumors this production of Cats will transfer to Broadway next season, but nothing has been confirmed.) The awards will be presented on May 15 in a private ceremony at 54 Below. The Best Play prize includes a $2,500 check from the Lucille Lortel Foundation.

The New York Drama Critics’ Circle comprises 23 drama critics from daily newspapers, magazines, wire services and websites based in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Drama Critics' Circle Award, which has been awarded every year since 1936 to the best new play of the season is the nation's second-oldest playwriting award, after the Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Adam Feldman of Time Out New York serves as President, Zach Stewart of Theatermania is Vice-President, and Helen Shaw of The New Yorker is treasurer.

In addition to Feldman, Stewart and Shaw, the members of the New York Drama Critics' Circle are David Barbour, David Cote, Joe Dziemianowicz, Greg Evans, Rhoda Feng, David Finkle, Elysa Gardner, Robert Hofler, Sara Holdren, Charles Isherwood, Chris Jones, Soraya Nadia McDonald, Jackson McHenry, Johnny Oleksinski, Brittani Samuel, Frank Scheck, David Sheward, Tim Teeman, Elisabeth Vincentelli and Matt Windman. Emeritus members include Melissa Rose Bernardo, Brian Scott Lipton, Michael Sommers, Steven Suskin and Linda Winer. Four members (Cote, Evans, Holdren, and McDonald) voted by proxy and one member (Windman) attended via Zoom. All other voting members were present.

Tonys Spread the Wealth

Sarah Paulson and Wendall Pierce
announced the Tony noms on
CBS Mornings.

The Tony Awards spread the wealth with Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her and Maybe Happy Ending sharing the top spot among nominees with ten each. All three are nominated for Best Musical, along with Dead Outlaw and Operation: Mincemeat. The first six nominations were announced by Sarah Paulson and Wendall Pierce on CBS Mornings and then the raced down to the Sofitel Hotel to read the rest of the nominees on the Tony Awards' YouTube channel. The Tonys will be presented on June 8 at Radio City Music Hall on CBS in a ceremony hosted by Cynthia Erivo. CBS and Pluto TV will present The Tony Awards: Act One, a pre-show of live, exclusive content leading into the 78th Annual Tony Awards. John Proctor Is the Villain and The Hills of California garnered the most Tony nominations among plays with seven each.

Othello with Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal, Redwood, Stephen Sondheim's Old Friends, and The Last 5 Years were totally overlooked. Smash, one of my favorites, only received two nominations. Boop! which was the top favorite of the Drama Desk with 11 nominations, only got 3 from the Tonys. I was also surprised that Stephen Daldry and Justin Martin were not nominated for the spectacular direction of Stranger Things: The First Shadow. 

Audra McDonald made Tony history with her 11th nomination, this time for Gypsy. This make her the most nominated actress in Tony history. Asian-American performers also made Tony history with five nominations, the most ever. They are Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending); Daniel Dae Kim and Francis Jue (Yellow Face); Conrad Ricamora (Oh, Mary!) and Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.). BTW, Yellow Face will be broadcast on PBS' Great Performances on May 18. Great Performance is receiving a Tony Honor this year.

There were 6 nominees among Best Actors,
but only 5 for the Best Actresses.

In an interesting twist, there were six nominees for Leading Actor in a Play and Musical and only five in the equivalent Leading Actress categories. Normally the categories are limited to five, but when there is a tie in the Nominating Committee ballots, a sixth nominee is added. Helen. J Shen of Maybe Happy Ending failed to make the final cut in the Leading Actress category. This was one of the major omissions commented on over social media and the Tony Award's YouTube channel.

Legitimate theatrical productions opening in any of the 41 eligible Broadway theatres during the current season may be considered for Tony nominations. The 2024/2025 eligibility season began April 26, 2024 and ended April 27, 2025. The Tony Awards will be voted in 26 competitive categories by 840 designated Tony voters within the theatre community.

The 2024-2025 Tony Award Nominating Committee consists of: Bob Balaban, Danielle Barlow, Rick Boynton, Brian Harlan Brooks, Dr. Jamie Cacciola-Price, Kevin Cahoon, Adam Chanler-Berat, Tony winner Victoria Clark, Jordan E. Cooper, Dan Foster, Donald P. Gagnon, Ph.D., Deeksha Gaur, Linda Goodrich, Miranda Haymon, Pulitzer Prize winning playwright James Ijames (Fat Ham), Tony winner Michael R. Jackson (A Strange Loop), Christine Toy Johnson, Rosalie Joseph, Rod Kaats, Michael Korie, Kathy Landau, Andrea Lauer, Zhailon Levingston, Jose Llana, Peter Marks, Jess McLeod, Lisa McNulty, Ira Mont, Jacqueline Diane Moscou, Helen Park, Jessica Paz, Georgina Pazcoguin, Ralph B. Peña, Karen Perry, Nancy Piccione, Jill Rafson, Bill Rauch, T. Oliver Reid, Liam Robinson, Carole Rothman, Susan Sampliner, Dick Scanlan, Florie Seery, Rachel Sheinkin, Devario Simmons, Walt Spangler, Mark Stanley, Susan Soon He Stanton, Sam Strasfeld, Jason Tam, Reginald Van Lee, Alexandria Wailes, Ben Wexler, and David C. Woolard.

A complete list of the nominees follows:

Reviews: Maybe Happy Ending, Drag: The Musical, The Big Gay Jamboree, We Live in Cairo

Helen J. Shen and Darren Criss in
Maybe Happy Ending.
Credit: Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

The almost-human robot is a familiar protagonist in science fiction and social-commentary narratives. Karel Capek’s RUR, Kazuo Ishiguro’s Klara and the Sun and Never Let Me Go, Ian McEwan’s Machines Like Me and Ray Bradbury’s The Electric Grandmother are just a few of the texts exploring the themes of artificial beings taking on human emotions and coping with obsolescence. The enchanting but hardly innovative new musical Maybe Happy Ending at the Belasco after runs in South Korea and Atlanta, features a similar plot. Set in a near future in Seoul, two robots, rejected by their owners for varying reasons, fall in love and find happiness. That’s it—the whole show is based on this gossamer-thin, cliched story arc. Luckily, Dane Laffrey and George Reeve’s ultramodern design, Michael Arden’s sleek direction, Will Aronson and Hue Park’s sweet and lilting score, and endearing cast elevate this simplistic sci-fi tale to an enchanting entertainment.

Oliver (a boyishly adorable Darren Criss) lives in a one-room apartment in “Helperbot Yards,” a sort of retirement home for robots. He has been waiting years for his owner to reclaim him. His world is changed when his neighbor Claire (delightfully sparkly and sharp Helen J. Shen), similarly discarded by her humans, requests to use his charger. After initial conflicts, the two take a road trip to find Oliver’s long-absent owner and for Claire to see the annual migration of nearly-extinct fireflies. Of course, the at-first combative pair connect romantically. Though the book by Aronson and Park lacks surprises, the sweetly simplistic story manages to pull our heartstrings. 

Criss gleefully captures Oliver’s Pinocchio-like innocence, channeling Brent Spiner’s Data in Star Trek: The Next Generation and Robin Williams in Bicentennial Man as a child-mechanical man. Shen plays a more advanced model bot, who is more aware of the harsh reality of how humans can easily discard their mechanical friends. She endows Claire with a quick wit and worldliness, perfectly complimenting Oliver’s goofy naivete, and also displays Claire’s hidden vulnerability. Dez Duron, a finalist on TV’s The Voice, lends smooth vocals to the proceedings as a bandleader idolized by the jazz-loving Oliver, offering commentary on the action with Aronson and Park’s creamy tributes to 1940s melodies. Marcus Choi is moving as Oliver’s former owner and his emotionally blighted son.

The futuristic sets by Laffrey and the amazing video design by Reeve (with additional video by Laffrey) create an expansive fantasy world where bots like Oliver and Claire are part of the electronic landscape and where memories and emotions can be altered at the press of a button. Maybe Happy Ending may be a bit like previous robot-fueled plays, movies and novels, but touches the heart and reminds us what it’s like to be human and in love.