Oscar Predictions: 'Gravity' Has Pull, But '12 Years' Takes Top Prize

I just don't get the swooning over Gravity for this year's Oscars. Special effects, fine, but not Best Picture. I don't even think it should get Best Director, but I am predicting it will take that category. The story is straight out of a 1950s sci-fi B-flick that I would see on MST3K. (You'll notice it has no screenplay nomination.) I can't imagine it winning over 12 Years a Slave for the top prize. In another weird twist I can't phantom, I'm encountering a lot of people who are afraid to see 12 Years because of all the whipping and torture of the slaves though they think it should win Best Picture. So Gravity will probably clean up in the tech categories, but hopefully Slave will triumph at the top.

Here are my predictions for this Sunday's awards. I am looking forward to the show because at least Seth McFarland will not be hosting.

Picture: 12 Years a Slave

Actor: Matthew MacConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

(Leonardo DiCaprio is the other possible winner since the ads for Wolf of Wall Street are screening 24/7, but MacConaughey's physical transformation should trump Leo's macho swagger.)

Oscar Noms: Snubs Are the Big News

Snubbed: Robert Redford in All Is Lost

The big news with this morning's Oscar noms is who wasn't on the list: Robert Redford, Tom Hanks, Emma Thompson, and Oprah Winfrey. It turns out Redford didn't want to push for a nomination and so did no campaigning and there were no industry screenings or Q&As with the star, so it's not so surprising that Christian Bale got his slot. That Best Actor race looks to be the most interesting with Redford out of the picture and not as much enthuiasm for the other sentimental favorite Bruce Dern, that leaves Leonardo DiCaprio, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Matthew McConaughey. DiCaprio and McConaughey won at the GGs (the Hollywood Foreign Press Assoc. splits their leading categories between comedy and drama) and Ejiofor seems to be losing steam. The Academy will probably honor 12 Years a Slave with the Best Picture Award. It might actually be DiCaprio since he's grown into such a solid actor (particularly in Revolutionary Road and The Aviator). In Wolf of Wall Street, he does all kinds of crazy stuff and has those long monologues which are great for clips. Jared Leto will definitely win for Dallas Buyers Club, so voters may feel they don;t need to vote for McConaughey (drag beats losing weight). Cate Blanchett is also a lock for Best Actress.

Film Awards Season Overview: 'Gravity' vs. '12 Years a Slave'

Michael Fassbender, Lupita Nyong'o, and Chiwetel Ejiofor in
12 Years a Slave

The film award season has already started and the battle lines are drawn: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity are the main contenders for Best Picture, with Her a possible spoiler. I can't believe Gravity is actually a possibility to take the top Oscar. Special effects, OK. Maybe even Best Director. But the Best Picture Award over the masterful 12 Years? My partner points out that Gravity is an "up" picture (no pun intended) with Sandra Bullock triumphing over adversity in the end (just like Tom Hanks in Capt. Phillips and Robert Redford in All Is Lost). Yes, Chiwetel Ejiofor does escape from his bondage at the end of 12 Years, but the film is so dark and uncompromising in its depiction of a national disgrace many would rather forget, it may be bypassed.