2026 Tony Award Predictions

For the past few years, I've combined my predictions for the Tonys with the Drama Desks because the two theater-award ceremonies were so close together. But this year, the DDs were held much earlier than the Tonys. So here are my predix for the upcoming Broadway-only Tonys. This has been an odd season with only 34 Broadway productions (if you count return engagements Mamma Mia and Beetlejuice) as opposed to 43 the previous season and 39 the season before that. There are only six new musicals, two of which have already closed (Queen of Versailles and Beaches). Some attribute this to the high volume of shows held-over from previous seasons including The Outlaws, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club, and Maybe Happy Ending. Fewer theaters were available for new shows. 

Best Play
Prediction: The Balusters
Preference: Liberation

Will The Balusters triumph over Liberation?
Credit: Jeremy Daniel

The Balusters is still running and won the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards. Liberation (my choice) did take the Pulitzer Prize but closed as did NY Drama Critics Circle winner Little Bear Ridge Road. Liberation was not eligible for the DD or the OCC since it was nominated last season during its Off-Broadway run. Giant is seen more as a vehicle for John Lithgow than a play that could stand on it own. 

Best Musical
Prediction and Preference: Schmigadoon

The Lost Boys could sneak in, but there is much affection for Schmigadoon, the parody tribute to the Golden Age of Musicals even though most of it was already seen on the Apple TV+ series.

Best Musical Revival

Prediction: Ragtime

Preference: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

I voted for Cats: The Jellicle Ball because it was such a radical rethinking of the original, recasting Andrew Lloyd Webber's cosy musicalization of TS Eliot's poems as a drag ball celebrating outsider queer culture. Ragtime is magnificent, but this Lincoln Center revival is essentially the same show as the first production. As with Liberation, Cats was considered last season by the DD and the OCC for its Off-Bway run. It's very close and could go either way, but I have a feeling the Tony voters will lean towards the traditional with Ragtime.

Best Play Revival:

Prediction and Preference: Death of a Salesman

Despite multiple revivals of Arthur Miller's classic, director Joe Mantello found new insights.

Best Actor in a Play

Prediction and Preference: John Lithgow, Giant

Is John Lithgow on the way to his third Tony?
Credit: Joan Marcus

John Lithgow has two Tonys, Nathan Lane has three. Not that it matters. It's between these two past Tony champs. Lithgow has the edge because his role requires more shifting emotions from rage to deceptively ingratiating wit as the anti-Semitic author Roald Dahl. Lane is brilliant but his Willy doesn't go through as many changes.

Best Actress in a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Best Actor in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Best Actress in a Musical:

Prediction: Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Preference: Sara Chase, Schmigadoon

I preferred Sara Chase in Schmigadoon who was funny and touching as the musical-loving doctor trapped in the titular fantasy town but Drama Desk winner Caissie Levy will probably be part of a Ragtime sweep.

Best Featured Actor in a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw

Christopher Abbott, Biff of Death of a Salesman, is favored by some predictors, but Alden Ehrenreich has won the Drama Desk and the New York Drama Critics Circle awards.  

Best Featured Actress in a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

Metcalf is now the reigning queen of dramatic Broadway, and has inherited the title of First Lady of the American Theater from Helen Hayes and Marian Seldes. She loyally returns to the Main Stem after having made her fame and fortune on TV as Roseanne's wacky sister. This will be her third Tony.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Should Have Been Nominated and Would have Gotten My Vote: Max Clayton, Schmigadoon

Ben Levi Ross of Ragtime and Elsbeth could sneak in since he won both the DD and OCC, but De Shields' decades-long career will probably earn him more votes.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

Prediction: Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Preference: Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

Should Have Been Nominated and Would Have Gotten My Vote: McKenzie Kurtz, Schmigadoon

I still can't fathom why Max Clayton and McKenzie Kurtz were not nominated for their brilliant take-offs on Billy Bigelow of Carousel and Ado Annie of Oklahoma! They got my votes for the Drama Desks.

Best Director of a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

As noted above, Mantello found new elements of this classic after six previous Broadway productions.

Best Director of a Musical

Prediction: Lear de Bessonet, Ragtime

Preference: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

This one is between Ragtime and Cats, and I have feeling the Tony voters will go traditional.

Best Choreography:

Prediction and Preference: Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon

Best Book and Score: Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon

Even though the songs were originally written for the TV show and the script is a condensation of the six episodes, I would go with Schmigadoon.

Best Orchestrations: Schmigadoon

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

Prediction: Death of a Salesman

Preference: Dog Day Afternoon

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: 

Prediction: The Lost Boys

Preference: The Rocky Horror Show

Best Costume Design of a Play:

Prediction: Fallen Angels

Preference: Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Costume Design of a Musical: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Lighting Design of a Play: Death of a Salesman

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play: Oedipus

Best Sound Design of a Musical: Cats: The Jellicle Ball