Pre-Oscar Thoughts and Predix

The Oscar noms are tomorrow and I've seen a lot of the potential nominees. The only nom I really care about is Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths. I have a bad feeling she will be overlooked despite winning the triple crown of critics' award from NY, LA and the National Society of Film Critics. But she was bypassed by the Golden Globes and the SAGs. I don't understand why, maybe because she's in a small-scale British film which has had a limited release. She also plays most of the film as a nasty, unlikable character who shows little sign of growth. Perhaps the GG and SAG nominators saw her performance as one-note. I will be happy if she gets a nom, but I think the probable winner in a very crowded Best Actress field is Demi Moore for The Substance. Her comeback story and GG win are very compelling. I'm afraid Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis of The Last Showgirl will not make the final cut though they deserve recognition. I also would love it if Danielle Deadwyler got a Supporting Actress nod for The Piano Lesson, but I don't have much hope for that. She was robbed of a nom for Till and will be probably not get one now either. Anyway, here are my predictions:

OSCAR NOM PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist 

A Complete Unknown 
Conclave 

Dune: Part Two 

Emilia Perez 

Gladiator 2

Nickel Boys 

A Real Pain

Wicked

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture

Cynthia Erivo - Wicked 

Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez 

Marianne Jean-Baptise - Hard Truths 

Mikey Madison - Anora 
Demi Moore - The Substance 

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture 

Adrien Brody - The Brutalist 
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown 
Daniel Craig - Queer 
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing 
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave 

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Ariana Grande - Wicked 
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist 
Margaret Qualley-- The Substance 
Isabella Rossellini--Conclave 
Zoe Saldana--Emilia Pérez 

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov - Anora 
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain 
Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown 
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 

Best Director
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez
Sean Baker - Anora
Edward Berger - Conclave
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
James Mangold - A Complete Unknown