State of the 2024 Film Awards Race

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain is
the only sure-thing front runner
for the 2024 Oscars.

This year I have not seen as many Oscar contenders as last year. With the summer of Barbieheimer in 2023, there were two clear front-runners for the top awards (Barbie and Oppenheimer). This year, we've only got Glicked--Gladiator 2 and Wicked--as top blockbusters and Gladiator 2 is receiving only lukewarm praise. Neither is a lock for the Oscar Best Picture. Wicked might triumph on the strength of its box office, but several independent critics' darlings who have who scribblers' awards could sneak in. These include Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, 

The acting categories are almost all wide open. The only candidate who seems to have the Oscar all wrapped up is Best Supporting Actor front-runner Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. The Succession star has won a majority of pre-Oscar awards and nominations and is this year's Da'vine Joy Randolph whose Supporting Actress performance in The Holdovers totally dominated the 2024 field. Lead actor is a four-way race between Adrian Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chamalant (A Total Unknown), Coleman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). Best actress probable nominees include Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Bapiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Arona), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Perez). The Supporting Actresses include Ariana Grande (Wicked, in the supporting field to avoid competition with Erivo), Isabella Rosellini (Conclave), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez). Although Rosellini's possible nomination is a mystery to me. I didn't think she was that impactful.

Still to come are the SAG and BAFTA nominees and the National Society of Film Critics which always goes their own way.

Below is a list of potential 2024 award-winning films I've seen so far and a breakdown of winners and nominees (so far). I have not included every single regional critics award because I have a life. In recent years the number of such movie reviewers' groups has proliferated to a ridiculous extent. It seems every major city in the US has one and some have two (one for traditional media and the other for online scribes.) Maybe I will get to including more of them eventually.

2024 Oscar contenders seen:

Between the Temples (Angelika Film Center)
Conclave (Angelika Film Center)

Gladiator 2 (Regal Kaufman Astoria)

Wicked (IMAX at Lincoln Square)

The Piano Lesson (Netflix)

Hard Truths (Walter Reade/Lincoln Center)

Maria (Netflix)

His Three Daughters (Netflix)

Short Subjects
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Netflix)

AWARD WINNERS AND NOMINEES FROM MAJOR GROUPS:

BEST PICTURE

Anora (BOS, cc, fis, gg, LAFCA

The Brutalist (cc, CFC, gg, NYFCC

Challengers (gg
A Complete Unknown (cc, gg
Conclave (cc, gg

A Different Man (GOTH
Dune: Part Two (cc, gg

Emilia Perez (cc, gg

I Saw the TV Glow (fis
Nickel Boys (cc,  fis, gg

A Real Pain (gg

Sing Sing (cc, fis, SD,
September 5 (gg

The Substance (fis, gg

Wicked (cc, gg, NBR, WDC

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture

Amy Adams - Nightbitch (fis, gg

Pamela Anderson - The Last Showgirl (gg
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked (cc, gg

Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez (cc, gg 

Marianne Jean-Baptise - Hard Truths (cc, CFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, SD

Angelina Jolie --Maria (cc, gg

Nicole Kidman - Babygirl (gg, NBR
Mikey Madison - Anora (BOS, cc, fis, gg, LAFCA, WDC
Demi Moore - The Substance (cc, fis, gg

June Squibb - Thelma (fis

Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door (gg
Fernanda Torres - I’m Still Here (gg
Kate Winslet - Lee (gg

Zendaya - Challengers (gg

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture 

Adrien Brody - The Brutalist (cc, CFC, gg, NYFCC
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown (BOS, cc, gg
Daniel Craig - Queer (cc, gg, NBR
Ryan Destiny - The Fire Inside (fis
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing (cc, fis, gg, GOTH, SD, WDC
Jesse Eisenberg - A Real Pain (gg
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave (cc, gg
Hugh Grant - Heretic (cc, gg
Keith Kupferer - Ghostlight (fis
Gabriel LaBelle - Saturday Night (gg
Jesse Plemons - Kinds of Kindness (gg
Glen Powell - Hit Man (gg
Hunter Schafer - Cuckoo (fis
Justice Smith - I Saw the TV Glow (fis
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice (fis, gg
Sebastian Stan - A Different Man (gg

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Joan Chen - Didi (fis
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (BOS, cc, fis, WDC
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (cc
Elle Fanning - A Complete Unknown (NBR
Selena Gomez - Emilia Pérez (gg
Ariana Grande - Wicked (cc, gg, SD
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist (gg
Carol Kane -- Between the Temples (fis, NYFCC
Karren Karagulian - Anora (fis
Kani Kusruti - Girls Will Be Girls (fis
Brigette Lundy-Paine - I Saw the TV Glow (fis
Natasha Lyonne - His Three Daughters (CFC
Margaret Qualley-- The Substance (cc, gg
Isabella Rossellini--Conclave (cc, gg
Zoe Saldana--Emilia Pérez (cc, gg

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov - Anora (cc, fis, gg, LAFCA
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain (cc, CFC, fis, gg, LAFCA, NBR, NYFCC, SD, WDC
Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing (cc, fis, GOTH
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown (BOS, cc, gg
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist (cc, gg
Adam Pearson - A Different Man (fis
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice (gg
Denzel Washington - Gladiator II (cc, gg

Winners are in caps, nominees are in lower case. BOS=Boston Society of Film Critics; cc=Critics Choice; CFC=Chicago Film Critics Association; gg=Golden Globes; fis=Film Independent Spirit; GOTH=Gotham Awards; LAFCA=Los Angeles Film Critics Assoc.; NBR=National Board of Review; NYFCC=New York Film Critics Circle; SD= San Diego Film Critics Society; WDC=Washington DC Area Film Critics Association