2024 Tony Award Predictions

The Tony Awards will be held on June 16. The Drama Desks were just held last night. Here are my predictions for the Tonys in all categories. The revival of Merrily We Roll Along was ineligible for the DDs because it was in competition last season for its Off-Broadway run at New York Theater Workshop. (The DDs include Off-B'way and B'way together in all of its categories.) Merrily will probably sweep most of its categories and Stereophonic will dominate the straight play division.

Play: 
Prediction and Preference: Stereophonic

Musical:

Prediction: Hell's Kitchen

Preference: Suffs

Book of a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Shaina Taub, Suffs

Original Score:

Prediction and Preference: Shaina Taub, Suffs

Revival of a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Appropriate

Revival of a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Merrily We Roll Along

Actor in a Play:

Prediction: Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People

Preference: Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

Actress in a Play:

Prediction: Sarah Paulson, Appropriate

Preference: Jessica Lange, Mother Play

Sarah Paulson and Jessica Lange in
American Horror Story.

This is the most competitive category. It's a race between Lange and Paulson, who worked together on American Horror Story. Both actresses won the Drama Desk for the non-gendered Leading Performance in a Play category. I think the Tony voters will go for Paulson because Lange already has a Tony for Long Day's Journey Into Night. Paulson also won the Drama League Award.  

Actor in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

Jonathan Groff, Millie Gibson and
Ncuti Gatwa in Doctor Who

Groff, Radcliffe and Mendez will benefit from the Merrily We Roll Along steamroller. Also Groff was magnificent on the Rogue episode of Doctor Who.

Actress in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses

Featured Actor in a Play:

Prediction: Corey Stroll, Appropriate

Preference: Will Brill, Stereophonic

Featured Actress in a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

Featured Actor in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

Featured Actress in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along

Director of a Play:

Prediction: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic

Preference: Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate

Director of a Musical:

Prediction: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

Preference: Jessica Stone, Water for Elephants

Choreography:

Prediction and Preference: Justin Peck, Illinoise

Set Design of a Play:

David Zinn, Stereophonic

Set Design of a Musical:

AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian, The Outsiders

Costume Design of a Play
Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic

Costume Design of a Musical
Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby

Lighting Design of a Play
Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic

Lighting Design of a Musical:

Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

Sound Design of a Play

Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

Sound Design of a Musical

Gareth Owen, Hell's Kitchen

Orchestrations:

Timo Andres, Illinoise