Oscar Nomination Reaction and Early Predix

Barbieheimer dominated the
Oscar nominations.

The Oscar nominations held few surprises--Oppenheimer and Barbie, the two blockbusters of last summer which brought audiences back into the theaters following the pandemic, reaped the most nominations. Oppenheimer is the probable Oscar champ--a big, three-hour epic of an historical personage. There has been some grousing about Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie being overlooked for Best Director and Actress, but they have received nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay and as a producer for a Best Picture candidate respectively. 

This movie year has been an exciting one because I've been able to see most of the nominated films before the nominations came out. It was easier this year because big films reaped many nominations in multiple categories. In previous years, the field was dominated by smaller films like Nomadland, CODA, and Parasite which got fewer citations. Plus many of the acting categories featured performers whose nominations were the only ones for their films--I still haven't seen some of last year's nominees. 

Pixar's Elemental

The sublime possibility of catching ALL the nominated films before the big night on March 10 is within my grasp. The only film that so far appears unattainable is the animated feature nominee Robot Dreams which is not playing in any theater in the NYC area or available on any streaming service. Maybe with this nomination, it will get some distribution. This past weekend I did catch two of the nominees in this category--Elemental on Disney Plus and The Boy and the Heron on screen at the AMC Empire 25. Elemental was fun and silly, also surprisingly inclusive with the water-boy hero having a non-binary sibling and the fire fortune-teller mother giving a love reading to what appears to be a gay male couple (one of whom seemed to be in a wheelchair, sort they got a woke two-for-one there.) The Boy and the Heron was my first Hayao Miyazaki film. I resisted them before because I'm not a fan of anime. But this film was an eye-popping fantasy. The magical underground world the boy Mahito finds under an abandoned tower on his family's land becomes a metaphor for the Japanese empire which is about to be crushed at the end of WWII. 

The Boy and the Heron

Below is a list of the Oscar nominees I've seen so far, followed by a list of all the nominees with my early predictions:

2023 Potential Oscar Nominated Films Seen So Far
Oppenheimer (34th Street AMC and again on Amazon Prime)
Barbie (Regal Union Square)
Asteroid City (Angelika)
Golda (County Theater, Doylestown, PA)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Regal Kaufman Astoria)

Rustin (Netflix)
The Killer (Netflix)--Tilda Swinton could nab a Supporting Actress nod
Maestro (Paris Cinema mezzanine and again on Netflix)
May December (Netflix)
Past Lives (Amazon Prime)
Poor Things (Regal Kaufman Astoria)
The Holdovers (Regal Union Square)
American Fiction (AMC Empire 25--Times Square)
Anatomy of a Fall (Amazon Prime)

Nyad (Netflix)

Napoleon (Amazon Prime)

Society of the Snow (Netflix)

The Zone of Interest (Angelika)

*Still: A Michael J. Fox Film (Apple TV +)
Les Menus Plaisir--Les Troisgros (Film Forum)
20 Days in Mariupol (Frontline/PBS/Watched on the Passport app)
American Symphony (Netflix)

*Beyond Utopia (Independent Lens/PBS)

*Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix)

The Eternal Memory (MTV Documentaries/Paramount +)

Elemental (Disney +)

The Boy and the Heron (AMC Empire 25--Times Square)

Short Films
Live Action
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
The After (Netflix)

*Yellow (YouTube)

Knight of Fortune (New Yorker/YouTube)

Red White and Blue (YouTube)

*The Shepherd (Disney +)

Invincible (YouTube)

Animated
*Boom (YouTube)
Pachyderm (YouTube)
*Once Upon a Studio (Disney +)

*Pete (YouTube)

Letter to a Pig (YouTube)

*Eeva (YouTube)

Documentary

*How We Get Free (Max)

Island in Between (NY Times/YouTube)

*Deciding Vote (New Yorker/YouTube)

The Last Repair Shop (LA Times/Searchlight/YouTube)

*If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis (Independent Lens/PBS/watched on the Passport app)

*Between Earth and Sky (POV/PBS website)

The Barber of Little Rock (New Yorker/YouTube)

*Camp Courage (Netflix)

The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV Documentaries/Paramount +)

*Last Song from Kabul (MTV Documentaries/Paramount +)

*Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games (ESPN +)

*Short-listed, but not nominated

Oscar nominees with predictions:

Best Picture

American Fiction (Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers)
Anatomy of a Fall (Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers)
Barbie (David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers)
The Holdovers (Mark Johnson, Producer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)
Oppenheimer (Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers)
Past Lives (David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers)
Poor Things (Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers)
The Zone of Interest (James Wilson, Producer)

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Directing

Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Prediction: Christoper Nolan (Oppenheimer).  But I would prefer Martin Scorsese to win a second Oscar. He should have as many as John Ford (5) because he is just as influential and as important a figure in the history of cinema.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Prediction: Paul Giamatti seems to have the momentum after his Golden Globe and Critics Choice win, but Cillian Murphy could be part of an Oppenheimer sweep.

Paul Giamatti in
The Holdovers
Credit: Focus Features

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Prediction: Lily Gladstone will probably take the award and make history as the first Native American actress to win. But Emma Stone is gaining traction for her Critics Choice win. I loved Carey Mulligan and she'd get my vote if I were an Academy member.

Lily Gladstone in
Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

American Fiction (Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)
Oppenheimer (Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Screenplay by Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Written by Jonathan Glazer)

Prediction: Oppenheimer, though it could go to Barbie as a consolation prize to Greta Gerwig for not receiving a director nod. What is Barbie doing in this category anyway? I know the Academy decided to put it here because the script is based on established characters, but it really is an original script.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anatomy of a Fall (Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (Written by David Hemingson)
Maestro (Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
May December (Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Written by Celine Song)

Prediction: Past Lives. They will want to encourage female filmmakers.

Teo Yoo and Greta Lee in Past Lives
Credit: A24

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron (Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki)
Elemental (Peter Sohn and Denise Ream)
Nimona (Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary)
Robot Dreams (Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal)

Prediction: The Boy and the Heron for now, but I may revisit this category after I see the other nominees, particularly Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Best Documentary Feature Film

Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek)
The Eternal Memory (Nominees to be determined)
Four Daughters (Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha)
To Kill a Tiger (Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim)
20 Days in Mariupol (Mystslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath)

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

20 Days in Mariupol
Credit: Mystslav Chernov

Best International Feature Film

Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Prediction: Zone of Interest. Always bet on the Holocaust film.

Best Animated Short Film

Letter to a Pig (Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter)
Ninety-Five Senses (Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess)
Our Uniform (Yegane Moghaddam)
Pachyderme (Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius)
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (Dave Mullins and Brad Booker)

Prediction: I've only seen 2 of the nominees so far, so I reserve judgment.

Best Live-Action Short Film

The After (Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham)
Invincible (Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron)
Knight of Fortune (Lasse Lyskjaer Noer and Christian Norlyk)
Red, White and Blue (Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane)
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson and Steven Rales)

Predicition: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Wes Anderson deserves a long-overdue Oscar.

Best Documentary Short Film

The ABCs of Book Banning (Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic)
The Barber of Little Rock (John Hoffman and Christine Turner)
Island in Between (S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien)
The Last Repair Shop (Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers)
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Sean Wang and Sam Davis)

Prediction: I've seen 4 of the 5 nominees. Nai Nai and Wai Po is supposed to be on Disney +, but it's not there yet. It features cute elderly people and that's always popular subject matter, so I will reserve judgment. Meanwhile I'll go with The Last Repair Shop.

Best Cinematography

El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design

Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

Prediction: Barbie

Barbie is my choice
for Costume Design

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé)

Prediction: Maestro, although the tide has turned against Bradley Cooper's Bernstein bio pic and it could be Poor Things.

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (Music and Lyric by Scott George)
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)

Prediction: Billie Eilish because she's a big rock star, but they may want to give it to Jon Batiste since his film did not get a Documentary nomination.

Best Original Score

American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Production Design

Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)

Prediction: Barbie

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Sound

The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects

The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould)

Predictions: I've only seen Napoleon so far. The Academy might be really perverse and give it to Godzilla. I will try and catch it and the other nominees.

The Creator
Credit: 20th Century Studios