National Society of Film Critics Falls in 'Amour'

Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

Just call me the Nate Silver of the movie awards season. By compiling a list of all the film awards, I believe we can get a good indication of how the Oscar nominations will go on Jan. 10. Today we add the National Society of Film Critics which had their voting at Sardi's in NYC. The NSFC always goes last of all the film critics' groups because they don't care about appearing in ads or Oscar campaigns. They almost never go along with the eventual Oscar Best Picture. This year they agreed with the Los Angeles critics and picked Amour as best picture with Emmanuelle Riva as Best Actress.

We've also adding film critics' groups based in Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, San Diego, and San Francisco as well as the Producers Guild Award nominees.(Do the winners go to all those cities to pick up their awards?)

The only major nominations left are the BAFTA Awards and the Directors Guild. The Baftas lean towards British product (it being a British Award and all) so expect The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel to represented. Once we have those, I will put out my predictions.

The only surprise for the Best Picture nominees would be if mass-market megapix franchise like James Bond and Batman are represented.

Here are the latest compilation lists. Newcomers include Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz and Emma Watson in The Perks of Being a Wallflower who were named as Best Actress and Supporting Actress respectively by the San Diego critics.

Picture: Argo (AFI, cc, gg, pga, SD)
Amour (LAFCA, NSFC)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (AFI, cc, is, pga)
Bernie (is)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (gg)
The Dark Knight Rises (AFI)
Django Unchained (AFI, cc, gg, pga)
Keep the Lights On (is)
Les Miserables (AFI, cc, gg, pga)
Life of Pi (AFI, cc, gg, LV, pga)
Lincoln (AFI, cc, DFW, gg, pga)
The Master (cc, SF)
Moonrise Kingdom (AFI, cc, gg, is, pga)
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg)
Silver Linings Playbook (AFI, cc, DET, gg, is, pga)
Skyfall (pga)
Zero Dark Thirty (AFI, Bos, CHI, cc, DC, gg, NBR, NYFCC, NYO, pga) 



Actor: Jack Black, Bernie (gg, is)
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, gg, is, NBR, sag)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (Bos, cc, CHI, DC, DET, DFW, gg, LV, NSFC, NYFCC, NYO, sag, SD)
Richard Gere, Arbitrage (gg)
John Hawkes, The Sessions (cc, gg, is, sag)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (cc, gg, sag)
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On (is)
Matthew MacConaughey, Killer Joe (is)
Ewan McGregor, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg)
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson (gg)
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (cc, gg, LAFCA, SF)
Wendell Pierce, Four (is)
Denzel Washington, Flight (cc, gg, sag)

Actress: Emily Blunt, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (gg) 
Linda Cartellini, Return (is)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (cc, CHI, DC, DFW, gg, NBR, sag)
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere (is)
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (cc, gg, sag)
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (gg)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, DET, gg, is, LAFCA-tie, LV, sag)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (Bos, cc, LAFCA-tie, NSFC, NYO, SF)
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock (gg, sag)
Maggie Smith, Quartet (gg)
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs (gg)
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (cc, is)
Naomi Watts, The Impossible (cc, gg, sag)
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (gg, NYFCC)
Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz (SD)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed (is)

Supp. Actor: Alan Arkin, Argo (cc, gg, sag)
Javier Bardem, Skyfall (cc, sag)
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, DET, sag)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (gg, NBR)
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFCA)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (cc, CHI, DC, gg, sag)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (cc, DFW, gg, LV, NYO, sag, SF)
Matthew Maconaughey, Bernie and Magic Mike (cc, is, NSFC, NYFCC)
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Bos)
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere (is)
Michael Pena, End of Watch (is)
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths (is)
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (gg, SD)
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom (is)

Supp. Actress: Amy Adams, The Master (cc, CHI, gg, LAFCA, NSFC)
Judi Dench, Skyfall (cc)
Rosemarie DeWItt, Your Sister's Sister (is)
Ann Dowd, Compliance (cc, is, NBR)
Sally Field, Lincoln (Bos, cc, DFW, gg, NYFCC, sag)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (cc, DC, DET, gg, LV, NY, sag)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions (cc, gg, is, sag, SF)
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy (gg, sag)
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice (is)
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (sag)
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere (is)
Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (SD)

Director: Ben Affleck, Argo (cc, gg, SD)
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA)
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom (is)
Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (Bos, cc, CHI, DC, DFW, gg, LV, NBR, NYFCC, SF)
Michael Haneke. Amour (NSFC)
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables (cc)
Ang Lee, Life of Pi (cc, gg)
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet (is)
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (cc, DET, is)
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On (is)
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (cc, gg)
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (gg)
Bein Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (is)

AFI=American Film Institute Bos=Boston Society of Film Critics; cc=Critics Choice Award nomination; CHI=Chicago FIlm Critics Association; DFW=Dallas Fort Worth Film Critics; DC=Washington DC Film Critics Association; DET=Detroit Film Critics; gg=Golden Globe nomination; is=Independent Spirit Awards nomination; LAFCA=Los Angeles Film Critics Assoc.; LV=Las Vegas Film Critics Society; NBR=National Board of Review; NSFC=National Society of Film Critics; NYFCC=New York Film Critics Circle; NYO=New York Film Critics Online; pga=Producers Guild Award nomination; sag=SAG Award nomination; SD=San Diego Film Critics Society; SF=San Francisco Film Critics Circle