2026 Tony Award Predictions

For the past few years, I've combined my predictions for the Tonys with the Drama Desks because the two theater-award ceremonies were so close together. But this year, the DDs were held much earlier than the Tonys. So here are my predix for the upcoming Broadway-only Tonys. This has been an odd season with only 34 Broadway productions (if you count return engagements Mamma Mia and Beetlejuice) as opposed to 43 the previous season and 39 the season before that. There are only six new musicals, two of which have already closed (Queen of Versailles and Beaches). Some attribute this to the high volume of shows held-over from previous seasons including The Outlaws, Operation Mincemeat, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club, and Maybe Happy Ending. Fewer theaters were available for new shows. 

Best Play
Prediction: The Balusters
Preference: Liberation

Will The Balusters triumph over Liberation?
Credit: Jeremy Daniel

The Balusters is still running and won the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards. Liberation (my choice) did take the Pulitzer Prize but closed as did NY Drama Critics Circle winner Little Bear Ridge Road. Liberation was not eligible for the DD or the OCC since it was nominated last season during its Off-Broadway run. Giant is seen more as a vehicle for John Lithgow than a play that could stand on it own. 

Best Musical
Prediction and Preference: Schmigadoon

The Lost Boys could sneak in, but there is much affection for Schmigadoon, the parody tribute to the Golden Age of Musicals even though most of it was already seen on the Apple TV+ series.

Best Musical Revival

Prediction: Ragtime

Preference: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

I voted for Cats: The Jellicle Ball because it was such a radical rethinking of the original, recasting Andrew Lloyd Webber's cosy musicalization of TS Eliot's poems as a drag ball celebrating outsider queer culture. Ragtime is magnificent, but this Lincoln Center revival is essentially the same show as the first production. As with Liberation, Cats was considered last season by the DD and the OCC for its Off-Bway run. It's very close and could go either way, but I have a feeling the Tony voters will lean towards the traditional with Ragtime.

Best Play Revival:

Prediction and Preference: Death of a Salesman

Despite multiple revivals of Arthur Miller's classic, director Joe Mantello found new insights.

Best Actor in a Play

Prediction and Preference: John Lithgow, Giant

Is John Lithgow on the way to his third Tony?
Credit: Joan Marcus

John Lithgow has two Tonys, Nathan Lane has three. Not that it matters. It's between these two past Tony champs. Lithgow has the edge because his role requires more shifting emotions from rage to deceptively ingratiating wit as the anti-Semitic author Roald Dahl. Lane is brilliant but his Willy doesn't go through as many changes.

Best Actress in a Play:

Prediction and Preference: Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Best Actor in a Musical:

Prediction and Preference: Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Best Actress in a Musical:

Prediction: Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Preference: Sara Chase, Schmigadoon

I preferred Sara Chase in Schmigadoon who was funny and touching as the musical-loving doctor trapped in the titular fantasy town but Drama Desk winner Caissie Levy will probably be part of a Ragtime sweep.

70th Drama Desks Spread the Wealth

Nygel D. Robinson and Brian
Quijada of Mexodus, won 
for Outstanding Book and Music
at the Drama Desk Awards.

Two Broadway shows, The Balusters and Schmigadoon, won the top awards of Outstanding Play and Musical at the 70th annual Drama Desk Awards, presented on May 17 at Town Hall in a three-hour ceremony. The remainder of the 36 awards and seven special awards were distributed among 18 other productions both on and Off-Broadway. Unlike the Broadway-only Tonys, the DDs include on, Off and Off-Off-Broadway in each of its multiple categories. The revival of Ragtime took home the most awards with five including Outstanding Revival of a Musical, Director (Lear de Bessonet), two for Lead Musical Performance (Joshua Henry and Caissie Levy) and Featured Musical Performance (Ben Levi Ross). Death of a Salesman won four including Outstanding Revival of a Play, Director of a Play (Joe Mantello, winning his fourth DD), Lighting and Set Design for a Play. This places Balusters, Schmigadoon, Salesman and Ragtime in the frontrunner positions of the upcoming Tony Awards on June 7.

The show was hosted by Marla Mindelle, star and co-author of Titanique now on Broadway which received DD nominations for its Off-Broadway run. Mindelle joked that the awards were named for Andromeda Desk, an obscure actress, and performed a brief musical number with two dancers from Death Becomes Her. She also performed an introductory comedy monologue, quipping that We'll I Let You Go was what her agent said after a bad audition for In Transit.

Presenters included Beth Leavel, Bryce Pinkham, Constance Wu, Norbert Leo Butz, Christopher Fitzgerald, Donna McKechnie, BD Wong, Doug Wright, Bess Wohl, Jenn Colella, Ethan Slater, Javier Muñoz, Nikiya Mathis, Daniel Breaker, Helen J Shen, Whitney White, Alex Brightman, Ann Harada, Hunter Foster, Lea DeLaria, Zhailon Levingston, John Ortiz, Whitney Leavitt, Jasmine Cephas-Hones, Ali Louis Bourzgui, Liisi LaFontaine, Solea Pfeiffer, David Zayas, Liza Colon Zayas, Jon Cryer, Paul Tazewell, Rafael Espinal of the Mayor's Office of Media and Entertainment, Qween Jean, Mark Strong, and Zhailon Levingston. 

The presenter banter by Kevin Zak was brief and witty. Lea DeLaria did ad-lib brilliantly as John Lithgow, winner of Outstanding Lead Performance in a Play for Giant, made his way to the stage by improvising a song "Take your time, John Lithgow." Lithgow hugged co-presenter BD Wong and revealed he had lost a Drama Desk Award when he co-starred with Wong in M. Butterfly in 1988. Lithgow said he did some research and found out this was his fifth Drama Desk Award. He also revealed his co-winner in the category, Lesley Manville for Oedipus, also won with him last year when they both were victorious at the Olivier Awards when both shows were in London. They might repeat theirs wins at the Tonys. Four years ago, the DDs made all performance categories non-gendered, doubled the number of nominees, and changed the rules so the top two voter-getters both win. Sometimes, two men win, sometimes two women, sometimes one of each gender. In the case of ties, there have been three winners. The only tie this year was for choreography which was shared by Schmigadoon and Cats: The Jellicle Ball.

The most memorable acceptance gesture was provided by Christopher Lowell of the Marjorie Prime outstanding ensemble who set offer a series of confetti canons on his way to the stage.

Cynthia Nixon, Christopher Lowell,
and Danny Burstein
accept Outstanding Ensemble for
Marjorie Prime.

Entertainment was provided by Liz Callaway singing "The Story Goes On" from Baby by David Shire and Richard Maltby Jr, honorees for the William Wolf Award. The songwriting team whose About Time was named Outstanding Revue earlier in the evening, gave their acceptance speeches from the audience. There was also a medley of songs from Disney musicals performed by Rodney Ingram, Kissy Simmons, Sierra Boggess, Ainsley Melham, and Zachary Noah Piser in tribute to Thomas Schumacher, former president of Disney Theatrical Productions who was receiving the Harold S. Prince Award. 

A video presentation hosted by Drama Desk Historian Leslie Hoban Blake documented the history of the Drama Desks and featured interviews with six Drama Desk icons--Gretchen Cryer, Andre De Shields, Richard Maltby Jr., Austin Pendleton, Jennifer Tipton, and Maury Yeston. The icons then come on stage to receive bouquets of flowers and a standing ovation. There was also an announcement that the following year's ceremony with take place at the Shed.

This year’s awards were produced by Drama Desk Awards Productions, a venture of Scene Partners in partnership with the Season. Chaired by the Martha Wade Steketee (UrbanExcavations.com), the 2026 nominating committee which saw and considered 270 productions this season includes Linda Armstrong (Amsterdam News), Daniel Dinero (Theater Is Easy), Peter Filichia (Broadway Radio), Kenji Fujishima (freelance, Theatermania), Margaret Hall (Playbill.com) and Raven Snook (TDF).  Charles Wright and David Barbour are co-presidents. The Drama Desk considers Broadway, Off-Broadway and Off-Off-Broadway in each of its multiple categories. 

Here is a list of the 2025-26 Drama Desk nominees and winners:

Outstanding Play
Caroline, by Preston Max Allen
Cold War Choir Practice, by Ro Reddick
Meet the Cartozians, by Talene Monahon
Prince Faggot, by Jordan Tannahill
WINNER - The Balusters, by David Lindsay-Abaire
The Porch on Windy Hill, by Sherry Stregack Lutken, Lisa Helmi Johanson, Morgan Morse, and David M. Lutken
Well, I’ll Let You Go, by Bubba Weiler

Outstanding Musical
Beau the Musical
Mexodus
WINNER - Schmigadoon!
The Seat of Our Pants
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

B'way Review: Dog Day Afternoon, Giant

Jon Bernthal, Danny Johnson, and 
Jessica Hecht in Dog Day Afternoon.
Credit: Matthew Muprhy, Evan Zimmerman

Two new Broadway plays are set in the last decades of the 20th century and based on real events. Both are startlingly relevant, foretelling fissures and fractious issues in our current era. Stephen Aldy Guirgis’s adaptation of Dog Day Afternoon, based on the cult-hit 1975 film about a botched bank robbery, exposes the sharp divide between those in and out of power. Mark Rosenblatt’s Giant, a transfer from London, raises the ever-present specter of anti-Semitism and the seemingly unresolvable, perpetual Middle-East War which has gone by many different names over the years (as well as issues such as censorship, cancel culture, and separating the art from the artist). Both productions are powerful theater and feature blockbuster performances not just from the above-the-title leads but from their entire ensembles.

Dog Day is a rarity on Broadway for many reasons. It’s based on a popular film and sports a cast of 20, but it’s not a musical. Guirgis’ stage version follows the Oscar-winning original screenplay and fleshes out many of the characters. The story’s strongly anti-authoritarian themes emerges with power but also becomes an electrifying crowd-pleaser. 

Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Jon Bernthal
in Dog Day Afternoon.
Credit: Matthew Murphy, Evan Zimmerman

This dark comedy was inspired by an actual ill-planned bank job which unexpectedly morphed into a media circus. On a broiling summer day in 1972, inept hold-up men Sonny and Sal stumble and fumble their way into a disastrous hostage situation. In a city reeling from near bankruptcy, the twin terrors of Vietnam and Watergate, not to mention the Attica prison riots, the debacle briefly grabbed the public imagination and Sonny emerged as a short-term folk hero. The fact that he was bisexual and his motive for the robbery was to raise the funds for gender-reassignment surgery for his lover added to the quirkiness of the story. (Guirgis downplays the homophobia of the era and makes Sonny more openly gay and proud.) After career-making turns in both Godfather films, Al Pacino cemented his star status as Sonny in the movie version.

B'way Update: All Out, Casts for Joe Turner, Giant

Ray Ramono, Jon Stewart and Ashley Park
are among the performers announced for
All Out: Comedy About Ambition.

The creators of last season's All In: Comedy About Love will follow up with All Out: Comedy About Ambition, employing the same format with a revolving cast of four enacting Simon Rich's short stories with Tony winner Alex Timbers directing. Performances begin Dec. 12 at the Nederlander Theater for a limited run through March 8, 2026. The rotating cast will include Eric Andre  (December 12-28), Jim Gaffigan (December 12-January 11, 2026), Abbi Jacobson (December 12-28), Jon Stewart (December 12-21), Ben Schwartz (December 22-January 11, 2026),  Wayne Brady (December 29-January 18, 2026), Cecily Strong (December 29-January 18, 2026), Mike Birbiglia  (January 13-18, 2026), Heidi Gardner (January 20-February 15, 2026), Jason Mantzoukas (January 20-February 15, 2026), Craig Robinson (January 20-February 15, 2026), Sarah Silverman (January 20-February 15, 2026), Nicholas Braun (February 17-March 8, 2026), Ashley Park (February 17-March 8, 2026), and Ray Romano (February 17-March 8, 2026). Additional casting to be announced.

B'way Update: John Lithgow in Giant

John Lithgow and Romola Garai
in Giant in London.
Credit: Manuel Harlan

Tony, Olivier and Emmy winner John Lithgow will return to Broadway for the first time since 2019 in Giant, the play by Mark Rosenblatt in which he starred in London's Royal Court and then the West End. Previews begin March 11, 2026, at a Shubert theater TBA for a limited 16-week run. Lithgow won an Olivier Award for playing author Roald Dahl (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory) facing a confrontation with his publishers for penning an allegedly anti-Semitic article. The 1983 article voiced Dahl's denunciation of Israel and support for Palestinians during the 1982 Lebanon War. Tony winner Nicholas Hytner directs and Bob Crowley repeats his London designs. The reminder of the cast will be announced at a later date.

"My debut play GIANT was written on spec in my kitchen with no assurance it would ever get produced at all,” said playwright Mark Rosenblatt. “So, to have it premiere at London’s mighty Royal Court Theatre before transferring to the West End was truly life-changing. And now, to open on Broadway, led again by the peerless John Lithgow, is truly the stuff of dreams - I can’t wait to share GIANT and Nick Hytner’s exceptional production with New York audiences.”

 "Being a part of GIANT from its inception has been the most challenging and exciting stage experience of my career,” said John Lithgow. “I play the central character of Roald Dahl, a man of dizzying complexity, on a day of crisis in his life. The story takes place forty years ago, but it resonates powerfully with events of our present day. No play I’ve ever been in has had such an impact on audiences. I am so proud and honored to play this part."

2014-15 Broadway/Off-B'way Season Update

Glenn Close will star in
Edward Albee's A Delicate Balance this fall

Theater awards for 2013-14 are pouring in and so are announcements of new shows for 2014-15. In addition to This Is Our Youth with Michael Cera and Kieran Culken, there are several revivals of plays of which I have strong memories. It's Only a Play is Terrence McNally's inside-baseball comedy set on the opening night of a huge flop. Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick will reunite as a bitter actor and nervous playwright. I saw an earlier version of it called Broadway, Broadway during its out-of-town try-out in Philadelphia just before I went away to college in 1977. It starred James Coco and Geraldine Page, and closed out of town. I do remember one joke about Beatrice Straight doing a cabaret act. It resurfaced as It's Only a Play Off-Broadway at Manhattan Theatre Club in 1986, again with Coco and Christine Baranski, Joanna Gleason and Mark Blum.

Edward Albee's A Delicate Balance is also coming back, this time with Glenn Close, John Lithgow, Lindsay Duncan and Martha Plimpton, directed by Pam McKinnon who staged Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf for Steppenwolf and on Broadway. When I was in college in Pittsburgh, there were two simultaneous productions by different groups. I must be getting old because the 1996 revival seems like only a few months ago to me.